Quantum Decade and the Public Sphere: 2025 as a Milestone of the Quantum Revolution
The year 2025 marks a historic turning point in the evolution of science and technology, as the United Nations has proclaimed it the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology (International Year of Quantum Science and Technology - IYQ, International Quantum Year). This decision, taken in June 2024, recognizes the centennial of the initial development of quantum mechanics, a science that radically transformed our understanding of the universe and made possible technologies that only a few decades ago belonged to the realm of science fiction.
This global initiative aims to strengthen public awareness of the importance of quantum science and its applications, while at the same time promoting international cooperation with particular emphasis on capacity building in the Global South (Global South, developing countries) and on advancing gender equality in the fields of the natural sciences.
Quantum Renaissance: From Theory to Commercial Reality
The year 2025 is not merely a symbolic anniversary, but coincides with a period of explosive growth in quantum technology. The UN recognizes that research and development in quantum science and technology is directly relevant to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs, Sustainable Development Goals), with the potential to promote health and well-being, reduce inequality, improve industry and infrastructure, advance economic development, support climate action and foster clean energy. UNESCO and the UN General Assembly have placed quantum technologies at the center of the global agenda for sustainable solutions in energy, education, communications and human health.
Google Willow: The Promise of Error Correction
In December 2024, Google announced Willow, a new superconducting quantum chip with 105 qubits (quantum bits – quantum units of information) that achieved an impressive milestone in quantum supremacy (quantum supremacy – quantum advantage over classical computers). Willow solved a quantum supremacy experiment that would have required at least 300 million years to simulate on a classical computer. However, the most important achievement is not simply computational speed, but the demonstration that it is possible to combine physical qubits (physical qubits – physical quantum bits) into logical qubits (logical qubits – logical quantum bits) in such a way that the error rate at the level of logical qubits decreases as the number of physical qubits increases. This represents a critical advance in the problem of quantum error correction (quantum error correction), a challenge the field has pursued for almost three decades, and appears to unlock the scalability of quantum hardware.
Microsoft and Atom Computing: Commercial Systems on the Horizon
At the Microsoft Ignite 2024 conference in November, Microsoft and Atom Computing announced a significant step toward a fault-tolerant quantum computer (fault-tolerant quantum computer): the combination of 24 logical qubits using neutral atoms held in place by lasers. The two companies report that this is the highest number of connected logical qubits recorded so far. Even more impressively, the companies published that they are co-designing and building a commercial quantum computer with more than 1,000 physical qubits, which is available to order immediately and is planned to be delivered to customers by the end of 2025.
Atom Computing’s neutral-atom qubits technology (neutral-atom qubits – neutral atoms as qubits) achieves low error rates with 99.6% two-qubit gate fidelity (two-qubit gate fidelity – accuracy of a two-qubit gate), the highest fidelity for neutral-atom qubits in a commercial system. Combined with Microsoft’s qubit virtualization system (qubit virtualization), they created 20 logical qubits from 80 physical qubits, a comparatively low ratio that indicates high efficiency.
Implications for Cryptography: The Threat of Q-Day
Progress in quantum computers brings to the forefront one of the most serious concerns for 21st-century cybersecurity: the impending obsolescence of modern cryptography. Today’s digital security relies on encryption algorithms such as RSA and ECC (Elliptic Curve Cryptography), which have reliably protected sensitive data for decades. However, this foundation is now under serious threat from quantum technology.
Shor’s Algorithm: Quantum Kryptonite
Shor’s algorithm (Shor's algorithm) constitutes a direct and powerful threat to public-key cryptography, such as RSA and ECC. It allows quantum computers to factor large integers and solve discrete logarithms exponentially faster than classical computers. This undermines the mathematical foundations of RSA-2048 and similar systems, potentially enabling the decryption of encrypted data if a quantum computer with a sufficiently large number of high-quality, error-corrected qubits becomes available. Although such machines do not yet exist, development is accelerating, with experts predicting that cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs, Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers) could emerge by 2030.
Grover’s Algorithm and Symmetric Cryptography
Symmetric cryptography (symmetric cryptography) (e.g., AES) also faces challenges from quantum technology, but to a lesser extent. In 1996, Grover’s algorithm (Grover's algorithm) showed that quantum computers can search key spaces in square-root time – essentially halving the effective bit strength of symmetric keys. AES-128 would offer only 64 bits of security under a quantum attack – insufficient for safe use. AES-256 would retain an effective strength of about 128 bits, making it a better post-quantum choice. A simple rule of thumb: double the key lengths of symmetric cryptography to maintain equivalent security in the quantum era.
Post-Quantum Cryptography: The Preventive Response
Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC, Post-Quantum Cryptography) is a preventive effort by the cybersecurity community to construct encryption algorithms that are resistant to both classical and quantum attacks. Unlike RSA and ECC, PQC is based on mathematical problems that quantum computers are not expected to solve efficiently, such as lattice-based cryptography, hash-based signatures, code-based schemes and multivariate polynomial problems. Organizations are urged to prepare now, since a quantum breakthrough would have far-reaching security consequences.
Hybrid cryptography (hybrid cryptography) combines classical and post-quantum algorithms, allowing organizations to secure systems today while preparing for the future. It offers backward compatibility and resilience against quantum threats. Standards such as RFC 8784 and RFC 9370 guide the deployment of quantum-safe VPNs, and companies like Palo Alto Networks already support hybrid modes in protocols such as IKEv2.
Quantum Technologies and Energy: The Green Revolution
Quantum technologies promise to transform the energy sector in ways that far exceed the capabilities of classical computers. The ability of quantum computers to handle exponential complexity can unlock insights and optimizations beyond classical limits, a potential game changer for energy and utilities.
Renewable Energy Forecasting
Quantum algorithms (quantum algorithms) can enhance the accuracy of renewable energy forecasting by integrating data from diverse sources – such as weather models, environmental sensors and historical trends – at a scale that is not feasible with classical systems. This improved accuracy allows grid operators to better predict fluctuations in renewable generation and adjust grid operations accordingly. By processing weather data, sensor inputs and consumption patterns together, a quantum-powered model could tell a grid operator exactly how much solar energy to expect in the next hour, with unprecedented precision. Pasqal and EDF demonstrated this by using a quantum computer to integrate temperature, wind speed and radiation data, resulting in highly accurate forecasts of renewable energy availability.
Materials Design and Batteries
National laboratories and startups are actively connecting quantum computers to real-world energy systems. In mid-2023, a team at NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) demonstrated a pioneering “quantum-in-the-loop” experiment (quantum-in-the-loop), integrating a 100-qubit processor with power grid control hardware to test quantum algorithms in real-time grid simulations. For example, a team at the German Aerospace Center (DLR, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt) launched the QuESt project, using quantum simulations (quantum simulations) to design better battery electrode materials. By simulating how ions and electrons interact in various innovative materials, they aim to significantly increase battery performance and lifespan.
Carbon Capture and Climate Solutions
A transformative aspect of quantum technology in energy is its potential to help mitigate climate change and support decarbonization technologies (decarbonization). Achieving net-zero emissions (net-zero emissions) will likely require breakthroughs in areas such as carbon capture (carbon capture), efficient fuel synthesis and the optimization of industrial processes – exactly where quantum technology can shine by simulating quantum processes at the molecular level (molecular level). Experts highlight the potential of quantum technology in developing new catalysts for green hydrogen production (green hydrogen), cleaner ammonia synthesis (ammonia synthesis) (bypassing today’s energy-intensive Haber–Bosch process), and other reactions that reduce emissions. For example, ammonia fertilizer production currently consumes about 2% of global energy; a quantum-designed catalyst could allow the process to occur at lower pressure or temperature, saving enormous amounts of energy and emissions.
Citizen Quantum Literacy: Democratic Control in the Quantum Age
The rapid development of quantum technologies raises critical questions about democratic control, the distribution of risks and benefits, and the avoidance of new forms of technological inequality. The UN and UNESCO have already recognized the risk of a “quantum divide”, where countries and populations that lack access to these technologies will be left behind.
The Necessity of Quantum Literacy
The concept of “citizen quantum literacy” (quantum literacy) emerges as a response to the need for informed public participation in decisions concerning quantum technologies. Just as basic digital literacy became essential in the 21st century, understanding the basic principles of quantum technology – without requiring deep technical specialization – is becoming vital for the democratic process. Quantum literacy should include an understanding of the fundamental concepts (what a qubit is, what quantum superposition and entanglement are – quantum superposition and entanglement), as well as the broader social implications of quantum technologies.
Distribution of Risk and Benefit
Quantum technologies carry both promises and risks that must be distributed fairly across society. On the one hand, they promise revolutionary advances in medicine (drug discovery through quantum simulations), energy (optimization of renewables), and materials science (materials science). On the other hand, they raise serious concerns about privacy (the threat to cryptography), security (potential military use), and economic inequality (concentration of quantum power in a few countries and companies).
A framework of democratic governance (democratic governance) of quantum technologies should ensure that benefits are widely shared, while risks are mitigated collectively. This means public investments in quantum research that are accessible to a broad range of researchers, not only to large technology companies. It also means regulatory frameworks that protect privacy and security while still allowing innovation.
Quantum Democracy: A Vision for the Future
The concept of “quantum democracy” (quantum democracy) goes beyond literacy, proposing new forms of political participation inspired by quantum principles. Instead of binary electoral choices (binary electoral choices), a quantum democracy could enable more flexible political decisions that recognize the probabilistic nature (probabilistic nature) of citizens’ preferences and opinions, accepting uncertainty and adaptability in decision-making. Citizens could be in continuous dialogue with their government through a permanent communication system, where significant changes in individual circumstances could update political preferences in real time.
In such a system, supported by advanced artificial intelligence systems, the government could process each citizen’s inputs in real time and periodically redesign its policies to match optimal solutions with respect to the majority of subsets and the seriousness of each issue. “Quantum democracy” could eliminate the “noise” of intermediary organizations between citizens and the governmental decision-making body, eradicate corruption, and prevent indifferent interests from dominating human society or leaving anyone behind.
Challenges and Limits
Of course, these visions come with significant challenges and potential risks. The use of advanced AI systems for democratic governance raises questions about algorithmic biases (algorithmic biases), lack of human empathy and understanding, and the need to define ethical responsibilities. In addition, the digital and quantum divide could worsen if new technologies are not accessible to everyone. This makes the need for quantum literacy even more urgent, so that citizens can understand, participate in and democratically oversee these developments.
Toward an Inclusive Quantum Future Society
The year 2025, as the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology, represents a unique opportunity to reconsider the relationship between technology, science and the public sphere. Impressive announcements from industry – from Google Willow, which shows real progress in error correction, to the commercial systems of Microsoft and Atom Computing with 1,000+ qubits – demonstrate that quantum technology is rapidly transitioning from laboratory research to practical application.
The philosophical and political implications are profound and multifaceted. In cryptography, we face the prospect of a fundamental upheaval of digital security, requiring an urgent transition to post-quantum systems. In energy and the environment, quantum technologies offer unprecedented possibilities for optimizing renewables, designing new materials and tackling the climate crisis. However, these benefits come with risks of power concentration and inequalities in knowledge.
The response to these challenges is not to resist progress, but to guide it democratically. Citizen quantum literacy – the ability of citizens to understand the basic principles, capabilities and limitations of quantum technologies – is a prerequisite for ensuring that the quantum revolution serves the public interest rather than narrow corporate or geopolitical interests. This means investment in education at all levels, from primary schooling to lifelong learning (lifelong learning), with particular emphasis on the Global South and marginalized communities.
New models of governance are also needed that allow citizens to participate meaningfully in decisions about the development and deployment of quantum technologies. This could include participatory mechanisms (participatory mechanisms) for technology assessment (technology assessment), public consultations (public consultations) on ethical and regulatory frameworks, and ensuring that public research remains independent of narrow commercial interests. UNESCO particularly emphasizes the need for international cooperation focused on capacity building (capacity building) in less developed countries and on promoting gender equality (gender equality) in STEM fields.
Ultimately, 2025 as a Quantum Decade invites us to imagine and build a society where scientific progress goes hand in hand with democratic participation, where the benefits of technology are widely shared and the risks are managed collectively, and where no one is left behind in the quantum revolution. This is the promise – and the challenge – of the quantum era that is only just beginning.
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